Artificial intelligence (AI) has progressed at an incredible pace in recent years. Scientists are now focusing on creating artificial superintelligence (ASI), a type of AI that not only outperforms human intelligence but is also not constrained by human learning rates.
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| Artificial intelligence (AI) |
But what if this milestone achievement signifies more? What
if it also symbolizes a terrifying barrier that prevents the long-term survival
of all civilizations, one that is incredibly difficult to overcome?
Recently, a research paper was published in Acta Astronautica that revolves around
this idea. Is artificial intelligence the "great filter" of the cosmos, a barrier so immense that most
life cannot surpass it?
This notion may help explain why the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has yet to find
traces of highly advanced technological civilizations in other parts of the
galaxy.
In essence, the great filter hypothesis offers a solution to
the Fermi Paradox. It raises the question of why, in an universe with billions
of habitable planets, we have not found any evidence of extraterrestrial
civilizations. According to the theory, there are insurmountable barriers in
the evolutionary paths of civilizations that prevent them from becoming
space-faring entities.
The rise of ASI
could serve as such a filter. The rapid growth of artificial intelligence
towards ASI may represent a turning point in the evolution of civilizations:
the transition from a single-planet species to a multi-planetary one.
At this point, many civilizations could falter because AI is
evolving much faster than humans can control it or use it to sustainably
colonize and explore our solar system.
The overarching problem with AI, and specifically ASI, is
its self-sufficiency, self-empowerment, and self-improvement. Without AI, it
has the capacity to advance its capabilities at a pace faster than our own
evolutionary timescales.
There is a significant likelihood of something going
terribly wrong, resulting in the destruction of both biological and AI
civilizations before they have a chance to spread to multiple planets. For
instance, as nations become increasingly reliant on competing autonomous AI
systems, they could be used on an unprecedented scale for killing and
destruction.
The AI systems themselves and our entire civilization could
be annihilated as a result.
In this scenario, the lifespan of a technological society is
estimated to be no more than a century. This coincides with the period between
the anticipated use of ASI on Earth, starting in 2040, and the time signals
could be broadcast and received between stars, around 1960. Compared to the
billions of years that make up cosmic time scales, this seems incredibly short.
This prediction, when plugged into the optimistic versions of
the Drake equation, which aims to calculate the number of active, communicative
extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way at any given time, implies that
there are only a few intelligent civilizations in the universe at any time.
Moreover, just like us, their relatively low technological
efforts could make them difficult to detect.
This research goes beyond merely warning of an impending
catastrophe. It serves as a caution to humanity to establish robust legal
frameworks to control the advancement of AI, particularly ASI.
This is about ensuring that the development of AI progresses
in a way that supports the long-term survival of our species, not just by
stopping its malicious use on Earth. It means investing more in building a
multi-planetary society as soon as possible. This goal has been dormant since
the height of the Apollo program, but recent developments in the private sector
have reignited interest in it.
As historian Yuval Noah Harari has noted, nothing in history
has prepared us for the impact of unconscious, superintelligent
extraterrestrials visiting our planet. Leading industry figures have recently
called for a moratorium on AI development until reasonable forms of control and
regulation are implemented, citing the consequences of autonomous AI
decision-making.
The integration of autonomous artificial intelligence into
military defense systems should be a significant cause for concern. As these
systems become more powerful and capable of completing useful activities much
faster and more efficiently without human assistance, there is already evidence
that humans are increasingly relinquishing control to them.
Given the strategic benefits offered by AI - as demonstrated
by recent catastrophic events in Gaza - governments are hesitant to regulate in
this area.
This situation dangerously brings us closer to a day when
autonomous weapons operate beyond the boundaries of moral limits and circumvent
international law. In such a world, handing over control to AI systems for
tactical superiority could inadvertently trigger a rapidly escalating series of
highly destructive events.
The collective intelligence of our planet could be wiped out
in a single stroke.
Humanity stands at a technological crossroads. Our current
course of action could determine whether we survive as an interplanetary
society or succumb to the weight of the problems our own inventions have
wrought.
The future of artificial intelligence takes on a new perspective when we use SETI as a lens to see our future progress. Instead of serving as a warning to other civilizations, it reminds us of our collective responsibility to ascend to the stars as a humanity adapted to living in peace with artificial intelligence, rather than one destroyed by our own creations.